The impact of devolution on local health systems: Evidence from Greater Manchester, England.

Devolution and decentralisation policies involving health and other government sectors have been promoted with a view to improve efficiency and equity in local service provision. Evaluations of these reforms have focused on specific health or care measures, but little is known about their full impact on local health systems. We evaluated the impact of devolution in Greater Manchester (England) on multiple outcomes using a whole system approach. We estimated the impact of devolution until February 2020 on 98 measures of health system performance, using the generalised synthetic control method and adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing. We selected measures from existing monitoring frameworks to populate the WHO Health System Performance Assessment framework. The included measures captured information on health system functions, intermediatory objectives, final goals, and social determinants of health. We identified which indicators were targeted in response to devolution from an analysis of 170 health policy intervention documents. Life expectancy (0.233 years, S.E. 0.012) and healthy life expectancy (0.603 years, S.E. 0.391) increased more in GM than in the estimated synthetic control group following devolution. These increases were driven by improvements in public health, primary care, hospital, and adult social care services as well as factors associated with social determinants of health, including a reduction in alcohol-related admissions (-110.1 admission per 100,000, S.E. 9.07). In contrast, the impact on outpatient, mental health, maternity, and dental services was mixed. Devolution was associated with improved population health, driven by improvements in health services and wider social determinants of health. These changes occurred despite limited devolved powers over health service resources suggesting that other mechanisms played an important role, including the allocation of sustainability and transformation funding and the alignment of decision-making across health, social care, and wider public services in the region.

Evaluating whole system reforms: A structured approach for selecting multiple outcomes.

Whole-system reforms, including devolution and integration of health and social care services, have the potential to impact multiple dimensions of health system performance. Most evaluations focus on a single or narrow subsets of outcomes amenable to change. This approach may not: (i) capture the overall effect of the reform, (ii) identify the mechanisms through which system-wide changes may have occurred, (iii) prevent post-hoc selection of outcomes based on significant results; and (iv) facilitate comparisons across settings. We propose a structured approach for selecting multiple quantitative outcome measures, which we apply for evaluating health and social care devolution in Greater Manchester, England. The approach consists of five-steps: (i) defining outcome domains based on a framework, in our case the World Health Organisation's Health System Performance Assessment Framework; (ii) reviewing performance metrics from national monitoring frameworks; (iii) excluding similar and condition specific outcomes; (iv) excluding outcomes with insufficient data; and (v) mapping implemented policies to identify a subset of targeted outcomes. We identified 99 outcomes, of which 57 were targeted. The proposed approach is detail and time-intensive, but useful for both researchers and policymakers to promote transparency in evaluations and facilitate the interpretation of findings and cross-settings comparisons.

Informal caregiving and the allocation of time: implications for opportunity costs and measurement.

Informal care requires a considerable time investment from providers that inherently involves trade-offs against various uses of time. We examine what other uses of time are forgone when individuals provide informal care. We further consider how caregiving is linked to a range of rarely explored time use characteristics relating to multitasking, the fragmentation and the timing of activities. We use data from 5670 adults across 11003 diary days from the 2014/15 UK Time Use Survey. Using a 'doubly robust' approach of entropy balancing and regression adjustment, we find carers spend an additional 49.0 min on non-market work, 2.9 min on personal care, 5.8 min on leisure and 2.9 min on miscellaneous activities on weekdays. They spend 46.1 min less on market work and 14.4 min less on sleep. Carers report more time stress, more multitasking, and more fragmented time. We estimate with attribution factors that 16% and 11% of reported household task activity is due to caregiving on weekday and weekend days, respectively. These findings provide evidence on additional opportunity costs faced by carers and possible channels through which carer labour market and health outcomes are realised. The attribution factors we calculate can be applied to total reported caregiving time to avoid overestimation when this is incorporated into economic evaluations.

How new clinical roles in primary care impact on equitable distribution of workforce: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: There are inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), and the associated Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme (ARRS) funding, have stimulated employment of new healthcare roles. However, it is not clear whether this will impact inequalities. AIM: To examine whether the ARRS impacted inequality in the distribution of the primary care workforce. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective before-and-after study of English PCNs in 2019 and 2022. METHOD: The study combined workforce, population, and deprivation data at network level for March 2019 and March 2022. The change was estimated between 2019 and 2022 in the slope index of inequality (SII) across deprivation of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs (total doctors, qualified GPs, and doctors-in-training), nurses, direct patient care, administrative, ARRS and non- ARRS, and total staff per 10 000 patients. RESULTS: A total of 1255 networks were included. Nurses and qualified GPs decreased in number while all other staff roles increased, with ARRS staff having the greatest increase. There was a pro- rich change in the SII for administrative staff (-0.482, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.841 to -0.122, P<0.01) and a pro- poor change for doctors-in-training (0.161, 95% CI = 0.049 to 0.274, P<0.01). Changes in distribution of all other staff types were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Between 2019 and 2022 the distribution of administrative staff became less pro-poor, and doctors-in-training became pro-poor. The changes in inequality in all other staff groups were mixed. The introduction of PCNs has not substantially changed the longstanding inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce.

Spillover effects of financial incentives for providers onto non-targeted patients: daycase surgery in English hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Incentives for healthcare providers may also affect non-targeted patients. These spillover effects have important implications for the full impact and evaluation of incentive schemes. However, there are few studies on the extent of such spillovers in health care. We investigated whether incentives to perform surgical procedures as daycases affected whether other elective procedures in the same specialties were also treated as daycases. DATA: 8,505,754 patients treated for 92 non-targeted procedures in 127 hospital trusts in England between April and March 2016. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis of the probability of being treated as a daycase for non-targeted patients treated in six specialties where targeted patients were also treated and three specialties where they were not. RESULTS: The daycase rate initially increased (1.04 percentage points, SE: 0.30) for patients undergoing a non-targeted procedure in incentivised specialties but then reduced over time. Conversely, the daycase rate gradually decreased over time for patients treated in a non-incentivised specialty. DISCUSSION: Spillovers from financial incentives have variable effects over different activities and over time. Policymakers and researchers should consider the possibility of spillovers in the design and evaluation of incentive schemes.

Predictors and population health outcomes of persistent high GP turnover in English general practices: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: English primary care faces significant challenges, including 'persistent high turnover' of general practitioners (GPs) in some partnerships. It is unknown whether there are specific predictors of persistent high turnover and whether it is associated with poorer population health outcomes. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. METHODS: We linked workforce data on individual GPs to practice-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the GP Patient Survey (2007-2019). We classified practices as experiencing persistent high turnover if more than 10% of GPs changed in at least 3 consecutive years. We used multivariable logistic or linear regression models for panel data with random effects to identify practice characteristics that predicted persistent high turnover and associations of practice outcomes (higher emergency hospital use and patient experience of continuity of care, access to care and overall patient satisfaction) with persistent high turnover. RESULTS: Each year, 6% of English practices experienced persistent high turnover, with a maximum of 9% (688/7619) in 2014. Larger practices, in more deprived areas and with a higher morbidity burden were more likely to experience persistent high turnover. Persistent high turnover was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1) more emergency hospital attendances per 100 patients, 0.1 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) more admissions per 100 patients, 5.2% (95% CI -5.6% to -4.9%) fewer people seeing their preferred doctor, 10.6% (95% CI-11.4% to -9.8%) fewer people reporting obtaining an appointment on the same day and 1.3% (95% CI -1.6% to -1.1%) lower overall satisfaction with the practice. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent high turnover is independently linked to indicators of poorer service and health outcomes. Although causality needs to be further investigated, strategies and policies may be needed to both reduce high turnover and support practices facing challenges with high GP turnover when it occurs.

Informal caregiving, time use and experienced wellbeing.

Informal carers report lower evaluative wellbeing than non-carers. In contrast to this literature and our own analysis of evaluative wellbeing, we find carers have a small but higher level of experienced wellbeing than non-carers do. To investigate why, we use decomposition analysis which separates explanatory factors into how time is used and how those uses of time are experienced. We analyze activities and associated experienced wellbeing measured in ten-minute intervals over two days by 4817 adults from the 2014/15 UK Time Use Survey. We use entropy balancing to compare carers with a re-weighted counterfactual non-carer group and then apply Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The experienced wellbeing gap of 0.066 is the net result of several substantial competing effects of time use. Carers experienced wellbeing would be higher by 0.188 if they had the same patterns and returns to time use as non-carers which is driven by sleep, time stress and alternative characteristics of time use. However, leisure and non-market activities serve to dampen this increase in experienced wellbeing. Initiatives to improve and assess carer wellbeing should pay close attention to how carers spend their time.

The effect of devolution on health: a generalised synthetic control analysis of Greater Manchester, England.

BACKGROUND: The devolution of public services from central to local government can increase sensitivity to local population needs but might also reduce the expertise and resources available. Little evidence is available on the impact of devolution on population health. We evaluated the effect of devolution affecting health services and wider determinants of health on life expectancy in Greater Manchester, England. METHODS: We estimated changes in life expectancy in Greater Manchester relative to a control group from the rest of England (excluding London), using a generalised synthetic control method. Using local district-level data collected between Jan 1, 2006 and Dec 31, 2019, we estimated the effect of devolution on the whole population and stratified by sex, district, income deprivation, and baseline life expectancy. FINDINGS: After devolution, from November, 2014, life expectancy in Greater Manchester was 0·196 years (95% CI 0·182-0·210) higher than expected when compared with the synthetic control group with similar pre-devolution trends. Life expectancy was protected from the decline observed in comparable areas in the 2 years after devolution and increased in the longer term. Increases in life expectancy were observed in eight of ten local authorities, were larger among men than women (0·338 years [0·315-0·362] for men; 0·057 years [0·040-0·074] for women), and were larger in areas with high income deprivation (0·390 years [0·369-0·412]) and lower life expectancy before devolution (0·291 years [0·271-0·311]). INTERPRETATION: Greater Manchester had better life expectancy than expected after devolution. The benefits of devolution were apparent in the areas with the highest income deprivation and lowest life expectancy, suggesting a narrowing of inequalities. Improvements were likely to be due to a coordinated devolution across sectors, affecting wider determinants of health and the organisation of care services. FUNDING: The Health Foundation and the National Institute for Health and Care Research.

A Comparison of Methods for Identifying Informal Carers: Self-Declaration Versus a Time Diary.

OBJECTIVES: Two main methods for identifying whether an individual is an informal carer are self-declaration and the use of a time diary. We analysed the level and predictors of agreement between these two methods among co-residential informal carers of adult recipients. METHODS: We used the 2014/15 UK Time Use Survey, which is a large-scale household survey for those aged 8 years old and over. It contains an individual questionnaire for self-declaration and a time diary for activity-based identification that records all activity in 10-min slots for two 24-h periods. Our analysis: (i) assesses the degree of overlap across approaches; (ii) explores the differences in characteristics between carers identified via one approach relative to non-carers using a bivariate probit estimator; and (iii) shows what factors are associated with being identified by both approaches using two independent probit estimators. RESULTS: Out of 6301 individuals, we identified 545 carers (8.6%) by at least one method and only 104 (19.1% of 545 carers) by both methods. We found similar factors predicted caregiving using either method but the magnitudes of the effects of these factors were larger for self-declared carers. Activity-based carers who provided more activities to a dependent adult and spent more time caregiving were more likely to also self-declare. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show low levels of agreement between the two main methods used to identify informal carers. Any assessment of current caregiving research or future means to collect caregiving information should pay particular attention to the identification method as it may only relate to certain carer groups.

Use of past care markers in risk-adjustment: accounting for systematic differences across providers.

Risk-adjustment models are used to predict the cost of care for patients based on their observable characteristics, and to derive efficient and equitable budgets based on weighted capitation. Markers based on past care contacts can improve model fit, but their coefficients may be affected by provider variations in diagnostic, treatment and reporting quality. This is problematic when distinguishing need and supply influences on costs is required.We examine the extent of this bias in the national formula for mental health care using administrative records for 43.7 million adults registered with 7746 GP practices in England in 2015. We also illustrate a method to control for provider effects.A linear regression containing a rich set of individual, GP practice and area characteristics, and fixed effects for local health organisations, had goodness-of-fit equal to R2 = 0.007 at person level and R2 = 0.720 at GP practice level. The addition of past care markers changed substantially the coefficients on the other variables and increased the goodness-of-fit to R2 = 0.275 at person level and R2 = 0.815 at GP practice level. The further inclusion of provider effects affected the coefficients on GP practice and area variables and on local health organisation fixed effects, increasing goodness-of-fit at GP practice level to R2 = 0.848.With adequate supply controls, it is possible to estimate coefficients on past care markers that are stable and unbiased. Nonetheless, inconsistent reporting may affect need predictions and penalise populations served by underreporting providers.

Effects of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine on COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation amongst older people: matched case control study for England.

BACKGROUND: The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has been shown to be effective at preventing serious COVID-19 events in clinical trials. There is less evidence on effectiveness in real-world settings, especially for older people. Here, we aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness in the context of the rapid NHS mass-vaccination programme in England, exploiting age-based vaccination eligibility thresholds to minimise and correct for selection bias. METHODS: We studied 170,226 individuals between the ages of 80 and 83 years from community settings outside care homes who received one dose of BNT162b2 mRNA between the 15 and 20 December 2020 and were scheduled a second dose 21 days later. We matched these vaccine recipients to slightly younger (aged 76-79 years) persons not yet eligible to receive the vaccine on gender, area of residence, area deprivation, health status, living arrangements, acute illness, and history of seasonal flu vaccination. We compared their rates of COVID-19 positivity and hospitalisation in the subsequent 45 days. We adjusted for the increasing concentration of COVID-19 positivity in the control population caused by the requirement to have no COVID-19 symptoms prior to vaccination. RESULTS: Emergency hospital admissions were 51.0% (95% confidence interval 19.9 to 69.5%) lower and positive COVID-19 tests were 55.2% (40.8 to 66.8%) lower for vaccinated individuals compared to matched controls 21 to 27 days after first vaccination. Emergency admissions were 75.6% (52.8 to 87.6%) lower, and positive COVID-19 tests were 70.1% (55.1 to 80.1%) lower 35 to 41 days after first vaccination when 79% of participants had received a second dose within 26 days of their first dose. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective at reducing COVID-19 hospitalisations and infections. The nationwide vaccination of older adults in England with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine reduced the burden of COVID-19.

Rates of turnover among general practitioners: a retrospective study of all English general practices between 2007 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify general practitioners' (GPs') turnover in England between 2007 and 2019, describe trends over time, regional differences and associations with social deprivation or other practice characteristics. DESIGN: A retrospective study of annual cross-sectional data. SETTING: All general practices in England (8085 in 2007, 6598 in 2019). METHODS: We calculated turnover rates, defined as the proportion of GPs leaving a practice. Rates and their median, 25th and 75th percentiles were calculated by year and region. The proportion of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) over consecutive years were also calculated. A negative binomial regression model assessed the association between turnover and social deprivation or other practice characteristics. RESULTS: Turnover rates increased over time. The 75th percentile in 2009 was 11%, but increased to 14% in 2019. The highest turnover rate was observed in 2013-2014, corresponding to the 75th percentile of 18.2%. Over time, regions experienced increases in turnover rates, although it varied across English regions. The proportion of practices with high (10% to 40%) turnover within a year almost doubled from 14% in 2009 to 27% in 2019. A rise in the number of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) for at least three consecutive years was also observed, from 2.7% (2.3%-3.1%) in 2007 to 6.3% (5.7%-6.9%) in 2017. The statistical analyses revealed that practice-area deprivation was moderately associated with turnover rate, with practices in the most deprived area having higher turnover rates compared with practices in the least deprived areas (incidence rate ratios 1.09; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: GP turnover has increased in the last decade nationally, with regional variability. Greater attention to GP turnover is needed, in the most deprived areas in particular, where GPs often need to deal with more complex health needs. There is a large cost associated with GP turnover and practices with very high persistent turnover need to be further researched, and the causes behind this identified, to allow support strategies and policies to be developed.

The Challenges of Measuring Informal Care Time: A Review of the Literature.

Economic evaluations increasingly include the value of informal care, for example, in terms of caregiver health effects or time costs. If an economic evaluation uses caregiving time costs, appropriate measurement of caregiving time is an important first step prior to its valuation. There is no comprehensive overview of the measurement challenges for caregiving time. In this literature review, we searched Medline, Embase, Econlit and Scopus to identify measurement issues and associated studies which reported informal care time that addressed them. The search identified 27 studies that addressed nine measurement issues. There is limited evidence on how to address these issues, although some have received relatively more attention, including incremental time (considered in 16 studies), time measurement method comparisons (six studies) and the inclusion of intangible tasks (four studies). Non-response (considered in only one study) and carer and recipient identification (two studies) were the most wide-reaching measurement concerns, as these determine who is identified as carers. There was no evidence on the consequences of these measurement challenges in terms of impacts on cost-effectiveness ratios and on the total cost of health conditions, which would be a crucial next step. Future research on these issues should consider a range of different settings, as informal care is highly heterogeneous. The measurement of informal care is key for its inclusion in economic evaluations but there is little consensus on how to appropriately measure this type of care.

Complements or substitutes? Associations between volumes of care provided in the community and hospitals.

Policymakers often suggest that expansion of care in community settings may ease increasing pressures on hospital services. Substitution may lower overall health system costs, but complementarity due to previously unidentified needs might raise them. We used new national data on community and primary medical care services in England to undertake system-level analyses of whether activity in the community acts as a complement or a substitute for activity provided in hospitals. We used two-way fixed effects regression to relate monthly counts of community care and primary medical care contacts to emergency department attendances, outpatient visits and admissions for 242 hospitals between November 2017 and September 2019. We then used national unit costs to estimate the effects of increasing community activity on overall system expenditure. The findings show community care contacts to be weak substitutes with all types of hospital activity and primary care contacts are weak substitutes for emergency hospital attendances and admissions. Our estimates ranged from 28 [95% CI 21, 45] to 517 [95% CI 291, 7265] community care contacts and from 34 [95% CI 17, 1283] to 1655 [95% CI - 1995, 70,145] GP appointments to reduce one hospital service visit. Primary care and planned hospital services are complements. Increases in community services and primary care activity are both associated with increased overall system expenditure of £34 [95% CI £156, £54] per visit for community care and £41 [95% CI £78, £74] per appointment in general practice. Expansion of community-based services may not generate reductions in hospital activity and expenditure.

The extent and predictors of discrepancy between provider and recipient reports of informal caregiving.

Informal care research mainly relies upon carers reporting that they provide this type of care. Little is known about whether reports from recipients would produce similar information. We explore whether providers and recipients are in agreement with each other's reports of informal care at the extensive and intensive margin and whether particular characteristics of providers and recipients predict any discrepancies. Using data from the 2015-2017 wave of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), we find that among those who reported receiving informal care a provider confirmed only 37.5% of these. Each additional restriction on activities and instrumental activities of daily living for a recipient increases the probability of agreement by 5.2 and 9.3 percentage points, respectively. When both parties report informal care, providers report on average 10.55 (37%) more hours per week compared to recipients. This represents an annual difference of £12,081 using the replacement monetary valuation method. If we rely on recipient reports, we may be more likely to capture how many in the population are caregivers. However, we may also be less likely to capture the full hours of care for each caregiver. These discrepancies in reported caregiving affect studies of the consequences of caregiving and economic evaluations of interventions that impact on caregiving.

The monetary valuation of informal care to cancer decedents at end-of-life: Evidence from a national census survey.

BACKGROUND: Carers' end-of-life caregiving greatly benefits society but little is known about the monetary value of this care. AIM: Within an end-of-life cancer setting: (1) to assess the feasibility and content validity of a post-bereavement measure of hours of care; and (2) to obtain a monetary value of this informal care and identify variation in this value among sub-groups. DESIGN AND SETTING: A census based cross-sectional survey of all cancer deaths from a 2-week period in England collected detailed data on caregiving activity (10 caregiving tasks and the time spent on each). We descriptively analyse the information carers provided in 'other' tasks to inform content validity. We assigned a monetary value of caregiving via the proxy good method and examined variation in the value via regression analysis. RESULTS: The majority of carers (89.9%) were able to complete the detailed questions about hours and tasks. Only 153 carers reported engaging in 'other' tasks. The monetary value of caregiving at end-of-life was £948.86 per week with social and emotional support and symptom management tasks representing the largest proportion of this monetary valuation. Time of recall did not substantially relate to variation in the monetary value, whereas there was a stronger association for the relationship between the carer and recipient, carer gender and recipient daily living restrictions. CONCLUSION: The monetary valuation we produce for carers' work is substantial, for example the weekly UK Carers' Allowance only amounts to 7% of our estimated value of £948.86 per week. Our research provides further information on subgroup variation, and a valid carer time instrument and method to inform economic evaluation and policy.

Variability in size and characteristics of primary care networks in England: observational study.

BACKGROUND: General practices in England have been encouraged by national policy to work together on a larger scale by creating primary care networks (PCNs). Policy guidance recommended that they should serve populations of 30 000-50 000 people to perform effectively. AIM: To describe variation in the size and characteristics of PCNs and their populations. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional analysis in England. METHOD: Using published information from January 2020, PCNs were identified that contained <30 000, between 30 000-50 000, and >50 000 people. Percentiles were calculated to describe variation in size and population characteristics. PCN composition within each commissioning region was also examined. RESULTS: In total, 6758 practices had formed 1250 PCNs. Seven hundred and twenty-six (58%) PCNs had the recommended population of 30 000-50 000 people. Eighty-four (7%) PCNs contained <30 000 people. Four hundred and forty (35%) PCNs contained >50 000 people. Thirty-four (3%) PCNs comprised just one practice and 77 (6%) PCNs contained >10 practices. Some PCNs contained more than double the proportions of older people and people with chronic conditions compared to other PCNs. More than half of the population were from very socioeconomically deprived areas in 172 (14%) PCNs. Only six (4%) of the 135 commissioning regions ensured all PCNs were in the recommended population range. All practices had joined a single PCN in three (2%) commissioning regions. CONCLUSION: More than 40% of the PCNs were not of the recommended size, and there was substantial variation in their composition and characteristics. This high variability between PCNs is a risk to their future performance.

The effects of unexpected changes in demand on the performance of emergency departments.

Crowding in emergency departments (EDs) is increasing in many health systems. Previous studies of the relationship between crowding and care quality are limited by the use of data from single hospitals, a focus on particular patient groups, a focus on a narrow set of quality measures, and use of crowding measures which induce bias from unobserved hospital and patient characteristics. Using data from 139 hospitals covering all major EDss in England, we measure crowding using quasi-exogenous variation in the volume of EDs attendances and examine its impacts on indicators of performance across the entire EDs care pathway. We exploit variations from expected volume estimated using high-dimensional fixed effects capturing hospital-specific variation in attendances by combinations of month and hour-of-the-week. Unexpected increases in attendance volume result in substantially longer waiting times, lower quantity and complexity of care, more patients choosing to leave without treatment, changes in referral and discharge decisions, but only small increases in reattendances and no increase in mortality. Causal bounds under potential omitted variable bias are narrow and exclude zero for the majority of outcomes. Results suggest that physician and patient responses may largely mitigate the impacts of demand increases on patient outcomes in the short-run.

Skill mix and patient outcomes: A multi-country analysis of heart disease and breast cancer patients.

Policymakers are becoming aware that increasing the size of the healthcare workforce is no longer the most viable way to address the increasing demand for healthcare. Consequently, a focus of recent healthcare workforce reform has been extending existing roles and creating new roles for health professionals. However, little is known of the influence on outcomes from this variation in labour inputs within hospital production functions. Using a unique combination of primary and administrative data, this paper provides evidence of associations between the composition of care delivery teams and patient outcomes. The primary data enabled the construction of a task component-based measure of skill mix. This novel measure of skill mix has the advantage of capturing how workforce planning can restructure the relative input of nurses or physicians into task components while keeping the overall level of staff fixed. The analysis focuses on specific care pathways and individual hospitals, thus controlling for an under-investigated source of heterogeneity. Additionally, stratifying by country (England, Scotland, and Norway) enabled analysis of skill mix within different health systems. We provide evidence that variations in labour inputs within the breast cancer and heart disease care pathways are associated with both positive and adverse outcomes. The results illustrate the scope for substitution of task components within care pathways as a potential method of healthcare reform.

Association Between Symptom Duration and Patient-Reported Outcomes Before and After Hip Replacement Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Patients experience discomfort and compromised quality of life while waiting for hip replacement. Symptom duration may affect quality of life attained following surgery. We undertook this study to investigate the impact of symptom duration on patient-reported postsurgical outcomes from hip replacement surgery. METHODS: National observational data collected before and after hip replacement surgery in England between 2009 and 2016 were used to investigate determinants of symptom duration prior to surgery and the relationship between symptom duration and presurgical and postsurgical patient-reported outcomes. Multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate associations between patient-reported outcomes and symptom duration, controlling for a range of covariates. RESULTS: The sample included 209,192 patients; most (69%) experienced symptoms for 1-5 years. A few patients (14%) experienced symptoms for <1 year, for longer than 5 years (6-10 years [11%]), or for >10 years (5%). Symptom duration decreased overall over the studied time period and was shorter among patients who were male, older, and from areas of lesser deprivation. Patients with a symptom duration <1 year had better postsurgical pain and function outcomes (Oxford Hip Score [OHS] 0.875 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.777, 0.973]) than those with 1-5 years symptom duration in an adjusted model. Conversely, those with symptom duration >5 years had increasingly poorer postsurgical outcomes (OHS -0.730 [95% CI -0.847, -0.613] for those with disease duration 6-10 years and OHS -1.112 [95% CI -1.278, -0.946] for those with disease duration >10 years). CONCLUSION: Symptom duration prior to hip replacement has become more standardized in England over time. However, increasing duration remains a significant predictor of poorer outcomes after surgery.